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Masks
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ErikS
Joined: 19 May 2005
Posts: 8329
Location: Slowing boiling over in the steamy south, Global Warming is real

5/10/20 7:55 PM

If you can smell the person you need a mask. Perfume, bad breath or the likes.

Otherwise unless you are in a public place like a store or public transportation you don't need a mask. This applies to my area. Those of you who live in the cesspools known as cities have different concerns when compared to rural folks.

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/11/20 11:36 AM

"Rocket science this is not." uh-huh


quote:
As to the math, it doesn't take a professional to use well known equations, but I guess if I got paid for decades as an engineer


That is not the correct way to calculate the present value of pension (social security) payments as in assess the value of different retirement payouts. Additionally, the value you assign to i in your equation is incorrect. When a pension actuary (or behavioral economist) plots your equation, it appears like this:

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lrzipris
Joined: 04 Mar 2004
Posts: 500
Location: Doylestown, PA

5/11/20 12:08 PM

"No nothing" or "Know nothing"? Either, I guess, speaking idiomatically.

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KerryIrons
Joined: 12 Jan 2004
Posts: 3064
Location: Midland, MI

5/12/20 10:17 AM

More math

Please, oh knowledgeable one, share with us the correct way. If you know the correct methodology, I would be most interested. Or are you just here for the insults? You've got to be able to back up your statements with facts and evidence. Otherwise we'll all just think you're a know-nothing troll.

And I should have noted that the NPV of the annuity stream starting at age 70 of course needs to be discounted back 8 years to the present start of the annuity stream starting at age 62. You apply the equations with different death ages and see what you get for NPVs.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 17804
Location: Portland, OR

5/12/20 12:18 PM

now now children....

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/14/20 5:32 AM

I've provided facts earlier including my last post which is very relevant. It may be a blow to your ego, but it certainly is not trolling. Dunning and Kruger were awarded a Nobel for their research. It is quite fascinating research and applicable here. I am often a good example of the Dunning-Kruger effect (and when it happens, I am most often unaware)

I'll add another fact. You need to consider the probability the pensioner will receive each respective payment. P(x, y) = probability person age x will live/be alive at age y. That value is applied to the value you are discounting.

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PLee
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 3674
Location: Brooklyn, NY

5/14/20 9:42 AM

Not an expert here, just someone who might know enough to get into trouble - the nadir of that curve . . . but it sounds like you're talking about the difference between NPV and actuarial value. NPV does not take into account the probability of living at any given age.

Bottom line, you're both right, except for the gratuitous digs.

Serious question for JesusSaves: Do the actuarial probabilities of surviving to a certain age change with your age? Example: Is the probability of surviving to age 80 when you're 70 different from when you're 60?

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KerryIrons
Joined: 12 Jan 2004
Posts: 3064
Location: Midland, MI

5/14/20 9:55 AM

Back to basics


quote:
You need to consider the probability the pensioner will receive each respective payment. P(x, y) = probability person age x will live/be alive at age y.


No, I don't. My statement still stands, that when you discount the cash flows, the lines cross at age 83. If you think you're not going to live that long, you take the early distribution. If you think you're going to live longer than that, you take the late distribution. That's what I said originally, and that is still the case. My statement was not an actuarial one.

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/14/20 6:23 PM

PLee, that is correct about NPV and why KerryIrons analysis is incorrect.
For instance, if you defer to age 70 and live to age 83, he asserts you will come out ahead of someone who begins to take the benefit at age 62. How is that so? For instance, if the take at 70 person lives to age 84 while the earlier pensioner lives to age 90. And yes it can be the same person making such decision - he may live a shorter life working longer or foregoing income thay he could use to live better. See the problem? NPV is much too simplistic application.

Additionally, the value he is using to discount is the rate of inflation, which is incorrect. A finance professional can explain why that is so meaning the erosion of value over time or in the case of NPV it poses an opportunity cost.

The answer to the 60/70/80 question is that yes the probabilities do change with age. I do not have a life contingency table to readily provide you examples. Sorry. In short, the values of both x and y in my last post do matter.

No matter how many times you write it, it does not make it true. If you wont believe me, here's what you can do... call an insurance company or financial services rep and tell them you are interested in purchasing an annuity. Shop around for a quote for both scenarios. . There's no harm to do so. You might be able to do so annonymously online. Provide them the parameters, e.g. SS benefit payment amounts and ages you start to collect, and you will see it confirms what I have written.

Question for both of you: how many years of study does it typically take to become a fully qualified (fellow) actuary? Here's a hint - its a longer journey than getting a J.D. or an engineering degree.

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/15/20 5:02 AM


quote:
It's not appreciated by many, but the Social Security payout system is designed so that for those who live an average-length life, the total benefits they collect will be roughly the same whether they start collecting early, on time, or late. After all, your checks, if you start early, will be smaller -- but you'll receive many more of them.


3 Great Reasons to Take Social Security Benefits at 62
https://www.fool.com/amp/retirement/2020/05/13/3-great-reasons-to-take-social-security-benefits-a.aspx

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Brian Nystrom
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Posts: 4654
Location: Nashua, NH

5/15/20 6:44 AM

None of those apply to me. I don't need the money now, longevity runs in my family (90+ is common and I'm healthy), and I'm not married. Unless something changes, I'll wait until age 70.

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KerryIrons
Joined: 12 Jan 2004
Posts: 3064
Location: Midland, MI

5/16/20 11:05 AM

Repeating

I don't know how many times I have to say this. My statement makes no assumptions about how long you live after age 83. Nor did I state a discount rate for the NPV calculation. I simply said, and I repeat it for clarity, that if you calculate an NPV for starting at 62 with the lower monthly payout and compare that with starting at 70 with the higher monthly payout, that the NPV will be equal at age 83 and at higher ages, the person who waited until 70 to take the payment will have a higher NPV. No actuarial calculation is required to make that statement.

Jesus Saves seems to be willingly ignoring what I have repeatedly stated by wanting to bring in life expectancy. That is not what my statement is about. We each have to draw out own conclusions based on our life experience, but if you believe that you will live longer than 83 years, then based on that belief you will be ahead to delay taking Social Security. You might be wrong. There might be other reasons why you want/need to draw it earlier. But that doesn't change the NPV calculations one bit.

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/18/20 9:31 AM

The one thing you are correct - it's not really "rocket science". NASA will employ one with a 4 year degree. In fact, it takes a whole lot more professional training than that of a rocket scientist, attorney or engineer. To answer the question - one that you refuse to do so - it takes upwards of 10 years of study.

Stating a NPV calculation to justify when to take a social security payment is an incorrect approach. NPV is purely a financial calculation. Social security benefits cannot, I repeat cannot be calculated solely as a financial calculation. The whole approach is wrong.

Even YOUR input to YOUR financial calculation is incorrect. Still no comment from you on that. Can you comment on that? Or is that out of your comfort zone?

As a (former) professional, I am telling you that your amateur analysis is bad advice. I'm done beating a dead horse and at this point no one else cares. Of more interest, what's your thoughts on the Dunning - Kruger Effect?

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dan emery
Joined: 11 Jan 2004
Posts: 6405
Location: Maine

5/18/20 11:10 AM

From the peanut gallery

Since I started this discussion of SS benefits, which I begin in a few months, a couple observations.

JS started by criticizing Kerry for allegedly stating that 8% is the discount rate for computing NPV. Kerry did not say this, as I tried to point out many posts ago.

JS also criticizes Kerry for allegedly stating that NPV is the only basis for choosing when to take benefits. Kerry also did not say this.

Not sure what is left.

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dfcas
Joined: 11 Jan 2004
Posts: 2658
Location: hillbilly heaven

5/18/20 11:13 AM

All I know is that government teet is sweet.

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Brian Nystrom
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Posts: 4654
Location: Nashua, NH

5/18/20 1:04 PM

"teat" ;-)

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 17804
Location: Portland, OR

5/18/20 1:52 PM

Are we done? ;)

I had to go get new TV. The previous one if you turn it off wont boot after turning it back on. Turns on but won't post, and it isn't even windows . ;)

I got it to stay on 24/7 for the last 3 month on a fluke boot up I can not seem to repeat that now that I hit the off button last night accidentally.

Point being: the Best Buy purchase was different that previous. Pay on line for store pickup [or wait for UPS]. Get txt it is ready for pickup with a link to notify of your arrival and a comment section they suggest you enter car/color etc.

Pulled in, hit at store button on the linked page. 3 minutes later a masked person came out to the staging/parking PU area with a box. Standing 4ft from my side window asks to see ID [I am wearing a mask too] and if it is OK to pop the hatch and toss er in. I laugh at the looking at the ID pic and my masked face, she sez name and address is good, etc.

I drive off with a TV/box to bring home and spray, open outside the front door whilst gloved and masked, wipe down with more Clorox spray. Install, toss gloves/mask, wash hands, take remote outta Clorox-ed plastic bag, and go.

Sigh

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lrzipris
Joined: 04 Mar 2004
Posts: 500
Location: Doylestown, PA

5/19/20 6:06 AM

FWIW, an article on the proper way to wear masks, by a journalist for the Philadelphia Inquirer:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-face-mask-how-to-wear-tips-20200518.html

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 17804
Location: Portland, OR

5/19/20 8:47 AM

A lot of handling mistakes of masks and gloves get made. Cross contaminating etc.

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/21/20 12:33 PM

I provided substative information. I also posed questions that were very fair and unanswered with good reason. It's too bad it is not better appreciated.

It is also disapponting that a well educated man like yourself, Dan Emery, would resort to such a lowbrow post. For instance, KerryIron's original post was clearly not expressed well. It became clearer with my replies.

Likewise, it became clear he's writing is BS dolloped with hubris. If you were educated in that field of study, like I am, you would know, too. It is apparent that is not the case as you added nothing more of value. Be critical of what yyou do not knlw.

Instead of taking that to task what I wrote you trivialize, obfuscate and take cheap shots at me. Real nice - not.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 17804
Location: Portland, OR

5/21/20 1:41 PM

Really? Get out on your bikes....


Asked "Are we done" above.

How about: "Let's be done" ;)

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daddy-o
Joined: 12 Apr 2004
Posts: 3307
Location: Springfield

5/21/20 4:02 PM

Visually check for a bad capacitor before throwing the old TV out. If you're lucky you can find an equivalent on a junk circuit board. New ones aren't expensive either. An electric guitar maker can handle the task. YouTube can fill in the blank if there's a knowledge gap.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 17804
Location: Portland, OR

5/21/20 4:16 PM

All surface mounted micro components.

But yeah. I may dig into it for shits and giggles and see if it will behave after some rube action. Replace the one in the shop I use for the Computrainers, that TV has a black line down the right side that comes and goes...

Worst part is it turns out the TV my neighbor threw out after breaking the glass was the same one. I could have harvested [I suspect P/S board] parts from it had I known. We both bought them same time.

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Jesus Saves
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: South of Heaven

5/21/20 5:20 PM

If the topic does not interest you than YOU are free to move on. Are you done yet? Your parents must have loved you tremendously on long trips as a child when riding in the back seat of the car.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 17804
Location: Portland, OR

5/21/20 5:45 PM

I do not need anyone to tell me in what to be interested.

The TTF is not beyond moderation effect. I am trying to make friendly suggestions before that happens.

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